Climate Change Impacts on Deeply Decarbonized Energy Systems: A New York Case Study

As another unusually warm summer has shown, heat waves, floods and other extreme weather events are testing grid resilience in every region of North America. To meet these challenges, electrical systems must be well planned and climate aware. This is an increasingly urgent task that utilities, system operators (RTOs/ISOs) and other planning bodies are beginning to undertake. However, there is one key aspect of the transition to a more resilient grid that needs more attention: how the impacts of future climate change intersect with the transformations needed to decarbonize the energy system.

Building an energy system that is both clean and flexible is possible with the right planning tools. Our analysis of climate change impacts in New York State shows that investments in building decarbonization, including measures such as energy efficiency and heat pumps, can have additional benefits for climate resilience that are often overlooked. is ignored.

As part of the New York State Climate Impact Assessment: Understanding and Preparing for Our Changing Climate, New York State Department of Energy Research and Development Commissioned Energy and Environmental Economics to conduct a detailed study of the impacts of rising temperatures on New York State’s energy system. In collaboration with Industrial Economics and Michael Craig of the University of Michigan, E3 incorporated hourly temperature forecasts into the energy system modeling framework we used to support it. New York State Action Council Climate Range Plan.

The analytical framework combined (1) temperature projections under three climate change scenarios, and (2) the effects of temperature changes on key components of energy supply and demand to examine two infrastructure scenarios: a reference case reflecting lower decarbonization investment and A weather law. – Decarbonization scenario consistent with

The analysis examined three warming scenarios, which are illustrative of a broader climate modeling exercise conducted by Columbia University using general circulation models, including a “moderate” scenario of no change in temperature. Winter was chosen over today. An “extreme” end-of-book scenario with very high levels of summer and winter warming. and a “moderate” scenario with comparable levels of summer warming by 2050 but smaller impacts on winter temperatures (Figure 1).

Figure 1: Projected effects of climate change on temperature in New York State

Effects of warming on the “peak heat” challenge.

Under deep decarbonization scenarios, the electricity system would have to grow significantly to meet the new electrified heating end-uses in cold climates. To meet the Climate Act’s goals, New York’s winter peaks are expected to grow significantly under today’s climate conditions, nearly doubling to nearly 50 GW between 2022 and 2050.

The increase in heating can partially reduce the electrical infrastructure investment required by the growth of electric load. Our analysis shows that warming temperatures could lead to a winter peak decarbonization scenario reduction of between 4 GW and 7 GW at moderate and extreme warming levels in 2050 (Figure 2).

Figure 2: Effects of warming on temperature NISO Peak seasonal demand

However, meeting the system’s peak needs in winter, especially given the limited availability of certain resources, remains a very important challenge to solve in decarbonized futures contracts. For example, times of high demand during winter often coincide with reduced solar generation, as well as risks of thermal power plant outages due to freezing of power plant equipment or fuel infrastructure.

It is also important to note that there is still uncertainty about how climate change will affect extreme cold weather events, which may limit the extent to which power system planning can be affected by warmer winter expectations, especially with Considering the importance of maintaining reliability during severe winter. It’s cold because more and more customers are relying on the electric system as their primary heating source.

Investments in the decarbonization of buildings can offset the effects of rising temperatures in summer peaks

In a “reference” scenario, summer air conditioning needs increase peak electricity demand, and reliance on relatively inefficient cooling equipment makes New York’s grid highly susceptible to overheating. Our analysis shows that the summer peak in the reference scenario increases between 3 GW and 12 GW (7%–28%) at the end of the century under moderate and severe levels of warming compared to the mild warming scenario (Figure 2).

New York’s investments in decarbonizing the building sector, including investments in efficient building envelopes, have the added benefit of reducing the peak effects of the power system in both seasons. Investing in building insulation and heat pumps – which are significantly more efficient than conventional air-conditioning units – helps reduce the effects of rising temperatures on peak summer demand and has added value in addition to improved air quality and carbon benefits (Figure 3). Conversely, without investment in improved building envelopes and more efficient equipment such as heat pumps, rising summer temperatures will lead to a significant increase in demand for cooling.

Figure 3: Combined Effects of Warming Temperatures and Decarbonization Investments on NYISO Summer Peak, 2050

In the decarbonization scenario, the added capacity to meet winter peak demand caused by electrification to meet summer peaks is also needed. As a result, the set of resources has been developed to meet the reliability requirements of the system in both summer and winter seasons. By 2050, under extreme levels of warming, the reference scenario requires about the same amount of capacity to maintain summer reliability, despite having much lower levels of building and transport electrification than the decarbonisation scenario.

Rising summer temperatures will also affect electricity infrastructure

The challenge associated with maintaining system reliability during peak summer demand periods is compounded by the effects of rising temperatures on electrical infrastructure. For example, higher temperatures lead to reduced transmission capacity throughout the transmission system and reduced output from solar panels due to a substantial reduction in efficiency. Heating also has a double effect on thermal generators, increasing the ambient temperature drop for combustion-based power plants while worsening their risk of unforced outages.

Many ISOs and utilities are now moving towards an efficient load-carrying framework to capture the reliability contribution of intermittent and time-limited resources such as wind, solar and battery storage. The same framework can and should be applied to thermal generators, which can experience correlated increases in outage risks during periods of high demand (during extreme cold and extreme heat events). By considering the synchronicity of thermal generator performance with reliability events, this framework increases system reliability under today’s climate conditions, provides a stronger incentive to weather infrastructure, and is more adaptable to changing climate conditions in the future.

As the effects of climate change intensify, it will be increasingly important for energy system planners to directly consider the effects of warming temperatures on every sector of the industry. Scenario design and sensitivity testing can be used to identify critical sources of uncertainty, and ultimately planning frameworks must be highly adaptive in the face of ongoing uncertainty about how climate change and warming will affect energy supplies and demand. to be

By continuing to invest in climate modeling efforts and incorporating climate uncertainty into decarbonization planning, the industry will ensure that the significant investments made over the coming decades are robust to a wide range of plausible futures.